Thursday, October 13, 2011

Difficulty/Price Update 101311

Lets look at what has happened to the price/difficulty relationship since the last difficulty update:

Previous Difficulty: 1,689,334
New Difficulty: 1,468,195
Difficulty Change: 13.09% decrease
2011-09-27 Price: 4.91 USD per 1 BTC
2011-10-13 Price: 4.04 USD per 1 BTC
Price Change: 17.92% decrease

Click image to enlarge











Prices haven't been this low since before the Bitcoin bubble started in May. My prediction was a 3-5% drop in difficulty and a price in the 4.70 range. I was wrong on both calls. The difficulty dropped very suddenly within the last few days since the major mining pools had troubles staying online. This delayed the difficulty reset by nearly 2 days. Also for the first time since I started keeping track, Price change and difficulty change were more related to each other than usual. Perhaps this will be the new norm as I think the difficulty will continue to slide until a profit can be made for most miners. At current rates, a difficulty of around 700,000 makes a bit more sense.